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How many leads you need, in short

Work backwards from revenue, not forwards from leads. Divide your monthly revenue target by your average project value to get the number of clients you must sign. Divide that by your lead-to-client close rate to get qualified leads needed. Divide that by your reply-to-conversation rate to get the number of buying-intent posts you actually have to see. Divide by 4.33 for the weekly number.

Worked example: a €6,000 monthly target at €2,500 average project value needs 2.4 clients. At a 15% close rate that is 16 qualified leads. At a 35% reply-to-conversation rate that is 46 buying-intent posts seen per month — 11 a week.

Realistic inputs: most service businesses close 10–25% of qualified leads, with inbound-shaped leads at the top of that band. On public social channels, roughly a quarter to a half of genuinely helpful replies produce a back-and-forth, driven mostly by how fresh the thread was when you replied.

Which lever to pull: improving conversion beats increasing volume. Doubling a 15% close rate to 30% halves every number upstream of it, while doubling lead volume doubles the hours. When the required number looks impossible, the binding constraint is usually coverage — too few communities being watched — rather than effort.

Start from the money.
Work backwards.

Nobody wants leads. They want a number at the end of the month. This runs the funnel in the only direction that makes decisions — from the revenue you're aiming at, back to the posts you have to actually see this week.

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Which lever actually moves it

Three ways to change the answer, in descending order of how much work they cost you.

Cheapest

Convert better

Doubling a 15% close rate to 30% halves every number above it. The levers are unglamorous and free: reply while the thread is still fresh, reply only to posts that genuinely qualify, and follow up once. Most wins come from the follow-up, not the first exchange.

Medium

Raise project value

Going from €2,500 to €4,000 a project cuts the clients you need by nearly 40%, and every number upstream with it. Slower to change than conversion, but it compounds and it doesn't cost hours.

Most expensive

See more posts

The obvious lever and the costly one — it scales linearly with your hours unless something else does the watching. Worth pulling only when the honest constraint is coverage: too few rooms, not too little effort. Most people watch four and need fifteen.

The arithmetic, spelled out

  1. 01

    Start from the number you actually care about

    Monthly revenue, not leads. Leads are an input nobody wants for their own sake, and starting from them is how people end up chasing volume that never becomes money.

  2. 02

    Divide by what a project is really worth

    Use your average signed project value, not your best one. If your work is retainer-shaped, use the monthly retainer figure and the funnel below counts new retainers rather than one-off jobs.

  3. 03

    Be honest about the two conversion rates

    Reply-to-conversation and conversation-to-client are different numbers and both are lower than you think. Public-reply channels typically turn a minority of replies into real back-and-forth, and a minority of those into paid work.

  4. 04

    Read the weekly number, not the monthly one

    Monthly targets hide the daily behaviour that produces them. "Nine buying-intent posts a week" is a thing you can actually check against reality on a Wednesday; "forty a month" is not.

  5. 05

    Sanity-check it against the rooms you have

    If the answer says you need to see thirty qualified posts a week and you belong to four quiet groups, the constraint is not your effort — it is your coverage. Add rooms before adding hours.

On the conversion figures. The 10–25% close band and the 25–50% reply band are practitioner ranges, not survey data, and the page presents them as defaults to be overwritten rather than as findings. Your own numbers from the last two quarters beat both. Where we do have measured data — on where clients come from, and on how much a fast reply is worth — it is sourced and dated in the statistics study.

You have a weekly number. Now it has to happen every week.

Seeing a dozen qualifying posts a week means checking a dozen rooms several times a day, judging each post, and getting there while the thread is fresh — which is exactly the part that decays the moment you get busy with client work. Build the keyword set first with the phrase generator, then either run the 20-minute-a-day system by hand, or let the extension watch for you from your own browser session.

Funnel maths, answered

How many leads do I need to hit my revenue target?
Work backwards: divide your monthly revenue target by your average project value to get clients needed, divide that by your lead-to-client close rate to get qualified leads, then divide by your reply-to-conversation rate to get the number of buying-intent posts you need to actually see. For a €6,000 month at €2,500 a project, a 15% close rate and a 35% reply rate, that is 2.4 clients, 16 qualified leads and 46 posts seen — 11 a week.
What is a realistic close rate for a freelancer?
Most service businesses land between 10% and 25% from qualified lead to signed client, and inbound-shaped leads — people who asked publicly and got a helpful answer — sit at the top of that band rather than the bottom. Cold outbound typically runs far lower. If you have your own number from the last two quarters, use it; it beats any benchmark.
How many replies turn into a real conversation?
On public social channels, expect roughly a quarter to a half of genuinely helpful replies to produce a back-and-forth, and the variance is driven mostly by thread age. Replies posted while a thread is still fresh do far better than replies posted after the asker has a shortlist, which is why speed matters more than polish.
Is it better to get more leads or convert better?
Conversion, almost always, and by a wide margin. Doubling a 15% close rate to 30% halves every number upstream of it, while doubling lead volume doubles the hours. Volume is the expensive lever; the cheap ones are replying faster, replying to better-qualified posts, and following up once.
Why does the calculator show a weekly number?
Because monthly targets hide the behaviour that produces them. "Thirteen buying-intent posts a week" is something you can check against reality on a Wednesday and correct in time; "fifty-two a month" is something you discover you missed on the 30th.
What if the number it gives me looks impossible?
Then it has done its job, and the fix is usually not more hours. Three levers change the answer far more than effort does: raise your average project value, improve close rate by replying faster and more selectively, or widen coverage so more qualifying posts exist to be seen. The last one is usually the real constraint — most people are watching four rooms and need fifteen.

The other three tools: buyer-phrase generator, cost-per-lead calculator, tool price index.

That weekly number has to happen every week.

Checking a dozen rooms several times a day is the part that decays the moment client work gets busy. ClientRadar does the watching; you keep every send.

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